The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week, indicating the jobs market continues to gradually recover.
Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 388,000 in the week ended March 26, the Labor Department said Thursday in its weekly report. The prior week's figures were revised up to 394,000 from an originally reported 382,000.
Here’s Joe…Will we be saying TGIF this week, let’s stay tuned!
This week brings us the release of five reports that are considered relevant to mortgage rates but some of the data is considered to be very important and one is arguably the single most important data we see each month. We also have two Treasury auctions that have the potential to swing bond trading enough to change mortgage rates. There are events that are relevant to mortgage rates, or at least have the potential to be, each day of the week, so we can expect to see a fair amount of volatility in the markets and possibly mortgage rates the next few days.
The first is February's Personal Income & Outlays report early tomorrow morning. This data helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market because of the influence that consumer spending- related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases in the near future. This raises inflation concerns, adds fuel for economic growth and has a negative effect on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in income and a 0.5% rise in spending. Smaller than expected increases would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted late Tuesday morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence is falling, it would indicate that consumers are more apt to delay making large purchases. If the report reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. It is expected to show a decline from February's 70.4 reading to 65.0 for March.
Wednesday is the only day of the week that there is no economic data scheduled for release from a government agency or reliable source. There are a couple of private sector employment-related reports being posted, but they are not considered highly important to the bond market or mortgage rates. These reports have not been accurate in predicting results of government reports, so they usually do not have much of an impact on bond trading or mortgage pricing. We do see some reaction to them if they reveal a surprisingly significant indication of employment strength or weakness. However, I don’t believe they deserve much concern or attention in regards to mortgage pricing.
The biggest news of the week will come early Friday morning when the Labor Department posts March's Employment report, giving us the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. This is an extremely important report to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained at 8.9% and that approximately 185,000 payrolls were added during the month. A higher unemployment rate and a smaller than expected payroll number would be good news for bonds and would likely push mortgage rates lower Friday morning because it would indicate weakness in the employment sector of the economy.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index late Friday morning. This index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives and is one of the more important of this week's data. A reading above 50 means more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who said it had worsened. This month's report is expected to show a reading of 61.2, which would be a small decline from February's reading of 61.4. This means that analysts think business sentiment remained fairly close to last month's level. That would be neutral news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A noticeable decline would be favorable for rates while an increase would be negative.
In addition to this week's economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes Tuesday and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.
Overall, I expect to see the most movement in rates either Tuesday or Friday. Friday is the most important day of the week with the employment numbers and ISM index being released, but we will likely see a fair amount of movement in rates Tuesday also. I am expecting tomorrow or Wednesday to be the calmest day of the week, but we should still see some changes to rates those days. In general, it will probably be a pretty active week for mortgage pricing. Accordingly, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.
Information courtesy of Joe Patterson with Princeton Capital (408)674-7438.
RISMEDIA, March 25, 2011—According to the latest Spending and Saving Tracker from American Express, more than two in five (41 percent) of Americans said that it’s a buyer’s market for real estate.
Most of us in the Bay Area realize how important Silicon Valley is to the region’s health and wellbeing. The Valley has spawned many successful startups over the years, attracting highly skilled, highly paid workers, venture capital, and strong demand for housing. But just how dominant Silicon Valley is in the tech sector is surprising even the experts. And it bodes well for the long-term future of our Bay Area housing market.
Entrepreneur and former MIT research director Branko Gerovac examined the S&P Technology 1500 – the largest public technology companies in America – that have been created over the past 20 years to find out where and when they were launched. What he discovered was that every year, the Bay Area and the west coast are becoming more and more successful in spawning meaningful startups that grow into large companies – and the east coast tech hubs of Boston, New Jersey, Raleigh-Durham, and New York City less so every year.
In the past 20 years, Boston has added one company to the S&P-1500 technology sector companies, while Silicon Valley has added 19 companies. Our local startup list reads like a who’s who of publicly traded tech – Google, eBay, Yahoo!, Juniper Networks, McAfee, Palm…the list goes on.
Of course this doesn’t even take into account those burgeoning private tech concerns like Facebook that will become public one day soon. And then there’s Twitter, the company that could stake a rightful claim into leading the social networking revolution. Twitter just announced plans to lease headquarters space on Market Street in San Francisco as the company works to expand its workforce from 400 to close to 3,000 employees, as this story discusses.
Success breeds success. The Valley’s dominance in launching and growing tech companies will attract even more of the world’s top engineering minds, more creative entrepreneurs, more venture capitalists, and the cycle will repeat itself.
Information courtesy of Rick Turley, Coldwell Banker, President Northern California
In a recent article entitled, Where the World’s Brains Are, best-selling author and urban studies expert Richard Florida said part of our formula for success comes from proximity to top-flight research universities (in our case, Stanford and U.C. Berkeley). Florida writes that these universities “increasingly function as a key hub institution of the knowledge economy” for Silicon Valley and the financial and biotech sectors of San Francisco and the East Bay.
All other things equal, Florida writes, “it is both easier for and more likely that leading scientists and researchers will move within these clusters” of local universities and remain in the general area to live and work. “This kind of proximity creates considerable short- and long-run advantages both for the universities and research centers within the cluster” as well as the region itself, he argues. “Established mega-clusters are likely to enjoy significant advantages into the foreseeable future.”
All of this could explain that while the overall Bay Area housing market has been holding steady in most areas, the high-end Previews market has seen strong activity in recent weeks in Silicon Valley, the Peninsula, and San Francisco. Just a few recent examples:
Information provided by Rick Turley, Coldwell Banker, President Northern California
Many taxpayers are preparing for their annual battle with IRS form 1040 by gathering up all their documents, statements, checks and other assorted papers. At the end of this process, taxpayers are often left with piles of neatly sorted, tabulated and cross-indexed piles. From a homeowner's perspective just what documents do you need to keep, and for how long?
If you bought a house last year, ask your Realtor to send you a copy of your Final HUD 1 statement. I do that for all of my clients each year and it saves them from looking through their papers. Still hang onto all of your paperwork associated with your purchase or sale but your agent can make the process a bit easier as we keep copies of all of our files for at lease 7 years.
Cheers,
Victria
Must see, regular sale, with gorgeous lake and valley views. Updated new paint, remodeled kitchen and baths and more!
What is customarily left in a home when you sell? Is it possible to get more money for expensive things I want to leave behind, like a wooden play set or a crystal chandelier?
which stays and which goes? 
Which stays and which goes? 
What is customarily left in a home when you sell? Is it possible to get more money for expensive things I want to leave behind, like a wooden play set or a crystal chandelier?
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Also, closer to home, make sure to review your own supplies in case there is a natural disaster.
Water, medical supplies, flashlights, non-perishable food...I know this can be a daunting task but an ounce of prevention can help.
This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports along with an FOMC meeting for the markets to digest. A couple of the week’s reports are considered highly important, as is of course the FOMC meeting. There is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates being released or taking place tomorrow or Friday, so all of the week’s events are scheduled over three days.
The first thing on the calendar is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Tuesday. This is a single-day meeting that will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET. It is widely believed that the Fed will make no change to key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but the post-meeting statement will be watched closely for any indication of when they will make a move. Generally speaking, the bond market wants to hear that inflation is not an immediate concern and that key rates will be kept at current levels for the near future. If the statement reassures traders that the Fed will not be raising rates anytime soon and that inflation remains subdued, we can expected the bond market to thrive and mortgage rates to move lower late Tuesday. However, if the statement hints of a move in key short-term interest rates sooner than later, or if inflation is becoming a point of concern, afternoon bond selling will likely lead to higher mortgage rates.
The Labor Department will post February's Producer Price Index (PPI) early Wednesday morning. This important index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy (including gasoline) prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns will rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.6% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data.
Also Wednesday, February's Housing Starts report will be posted but it will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of fairly low importance to the financial markets unless it shows a large variance between forecasts and actual number of new home starts. It is expected to show a decline in new starts from January to February, signaling weakness in the housing sector.
Thursday has the remaining three economic reports scheduled. February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released early Thursday morning, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. Its results can definitely have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall Thursday.
The next data will come mid-morning when February's Industrial Production report is posted. This report measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.6% increase from January's level. A decline would be considered extremely favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness and a broader economic recovery is more difficult if manufacturing activity is slipping.
The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late Thursday morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is considered to be moderately important, but likely will not influence mortgage rates unless the CPI matches forecasts and this report shows a large variance from expectations. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.9% increase, meaning it is predicting that economic activity will likely expand rapidly in the coming weeks. A decline would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
Overall, look for Thursday to be the most important day of the week due to the CPI release, but Tuesday's FOMC meeting can also heavily influence the markets. Wednesday may also be an active day for rates with the PPI on tap. Friday will probably be the calmest day for mortgage rates, but it appears there is a good possibility of seeing plenty of movement in rates the next several days. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
Add a creative touch to your garden with handmade stepping stones.
Having a path in the garden is a great way to get from one place to another without trampling grass or plants.
Location has long been touted as the most important variable affecting the value of residential real estate. Recently, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices suggested that location is still a front-runner in terms of determining valuation.
Don’t rouse the IRS or pay more taxes than necessary—know the score on each home tax deduction and credit.
What do women and men look for when buying a home? Interesting comments from real buyers.
Happy House Hunting!
This week brings us the release of three economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30-year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so several days will likely be influenced more by stock trading and other factors than the economic news of the day.
There are no relevant events scheduled for Monday or Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading as it would indicate that investors still have an appetite for longer-term securities. However, weak demand in the sale could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates.
January's Goods and Services Trade Balance is the week's first economic data. It comes early Thursday morning and gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much. Current forecasts are calling for a $41.5 billion trade deficit during January, but we will need to see a large variance from this estimate for the news to influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage pricing.
There will be two reports posted Friday morning. The first is at 8:30 AM and is the most important of the week. This is when the Commerce Department will post February's Retail Sales data. It is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the markets. This month's report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 1.0%. If Friday's release reveals a larger than expected increase, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will move higher as it would indicate economic growth. If it reveals a much smaller than expected increase, I expect to see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve Friday morning.
Also on tap Friday is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely follow, we may see mortgage rates move higher late Friday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 76.5, which is would be a noticeable decline from February's final reading 77.5.
Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Friday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due, while the calmest day could be tomorrow or Tuesday, depending on the stock markets. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, so please be careful if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
This information courtesy of Joe Patterson with Princeton Capital, Find him on Facebook or (408)674-7438
For the first time in months, the Labor Department's job market assessment matches up with private surveys showing a pick-up in employment that is finally fast enough to put a substantial dent in the unemployment rate.
Construction, manufacturing and services all contributed to the slightly stronger-than-expected February payroll gain of 192,000 jobs.
The dip in the jobless rate to 8.9 percent also shows a strengthening labor market.
Here is a chart of statistics to let you know how much house you can afford based upon you income. If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me an email. Would love comments too!
News from around the world brings mortgage rates lower this week! Rates back around 5% for the first time in weeks.
The biggest news of the week comes Friday morning when one of the single most important monthly reports we see will be posted. The Labor Department will release February's Employment report at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a large drop in payrolls and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate to 9.1% and approximately 180,000 jobs added during the month. Weaker than expected readings would be great news for the bond market and should lead to lower mortgage rates Friday.
Information courtesy of Joe Patterson with Princeton Capital
Mortgage Brief
